From the days of the humble Nokia 1100 to the new age RobinNextbit, we have witnessed the evolution of mobile phones to smartphones. With growing disposable incomes and galloping technology innovations ushered the golden time for smartphone makers and consumers. We greedily lapped up all that was dished out to us, and we craved for more. Nokia phased out with time, and gave way to big weights like Samsung, Apple, Sony, Lenovo and the other prominent players. These guys fiercely and aggressively fought to dominate the market and endlessly churned out smartphone devices of all sizes and improved features to suit various wallet sizes. We swayed our loyalties and preferences just like the Romans who cheered on the mighty gladiators.

Smartphones are now a part of our lives to such an extent that our lives revolve around them. We are now the smart consumers; we pay attention to the details of the device now, storage space, battery life, processors, camera quality and so on. Now that we are smart and empowered to choose a smartphone device from the endless array of brand and models, smartphone makers have also rolled their sleeves up. There is a reason why the census report alarmingly stated Indians have more access to smartphones than toilets!

But what does this mean? Every person we come across owns a smartphone. From chaiwallas to CEOs, smartphones are secular and democratic! So are we over burdened with choices? Isn’t the market saturated? Why are new models being launched every now and then? Something is just not right, after all we only care about the apps we use. Apps are the actual reason why we use our smartphones. New or old device, update the operating system and apps, we are good to go. No need for new devices.

The Gartner Report on the analysis of smartphone sales is quite a revelation. The analysis predicts the worldwide smartphone sales to grow 7 per cent in the year 2016, while in the year 2010 smartphone sales registered a mammoth growth of 73 per cent.

In mature markets like America, Western Europe and Japan users are no longer replacing or upgrading their smartphones which will result in a sluggish growth in these markets. "In the mature markets, premium phone users are extending life cycles to 2.5 years, which is not going to change drastically over the next five years," said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner.

Since mature markets are saturated, the focus for many vendors is on India and China. "India has the highest growth potential," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Sales of feature phones totaled 167 million units in 2015, 61 percent of total mobile phone sales in India."
Smartphones are expensive for users in India, but with the average selling prices (ASPs) of low-end models falling, Gartner estimates that 139 million smartphones will be sold in India in 2016, growing 29.5 per cent year over year. ASPs of mobile phones in India remain under US$70, and smartphones under US$120 will continue to contribute around 50 percent of overall smartphone sales in 2016.

After recording growth of 16 per cent in 2014, sales of smartphones in China were flat in 2015. "In this saturated yet highly competitive smartphone market, there is little growth expected in China in the next five years," said Ms. Zimmermann. Sales of smartphones in China represented 95 per cent of total mobile phone sales in 2015. Similar to India, falling ASPs for smartphones will make them more affordable for users."

"The worldwide smartphone market remains complex and competitive for all mobile phone vendors, and we are not expecting the vendor landscape to get smaller," said Zimmermann. "In such a fluid vendor landscape, some will exit the market while newcomers, including mobile manufacturers or internet service providers from China and India, could make their debut."

Gartner forecasts that by 2018, at least one nontraditional phone maker will be among the top five smartphone brands in China. "Chinese internet companies are increasingly investing in mobile device hardware development, platforms and distribution as they aim to grow their user bases and increase user loyalty and engagement," concluded Zimmermann.

With inputs from Gartner Newsroom.

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